Georgia’s profound transformation could spell trouble for Trump

If you had any doubts about whether America’s political landscape has changed, take a look at what’s happening in Georgia.

In 2016, the majority of Georgia voters went for Donald Trump, siding with the Republican candidate as they had in every presidential election since 1992.

This time around, just about every electoral map charting Trump’s path to reelection had initially marked Georgia red. But the Peach State is now a toss up, and it could end up going to Democrat Joe Biden and narrowing Trump’s potential path to victory. Voters could also replace both Republican senators, Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, with their Democratic challengers.

There’s no guarantee that Democrats will ultimately win any of those races. But the fact that they’re competitive is evidence of the state’s profound transformation.

In the presidential race, CNN’s poll of polls, which tracks the average poll result, shows Biden with a slight lead in Georgia. It’s remarkable that the former vice president campaigned in the state on Tuesday — the first time a Democratic presidential candidate has done so since Bill Clinton in 1996 (he went on to lose the state). Trump, too, is making a stop in Georgia this weekend, spending precious time to shore up a state that was supposed to be safely in his column.

Perdue will be appearing with Trump on Sunday, instead of attending the last scheduled debate with his rival Jon Ossoff, who nearly eviscerated him during their face-off on Wednesday. The 33-year-old Democrat was merciless in an attack that went viral on social media. “It’s not just that you’re a crook, Senator,” he said in calm, Buttigiegian fashion, referring to Perdue’s controversial stock trades (the senator has denied wrongdoing, saying that all transactions are handled by a third-party investment adviser). “It’s that you’re attacking the health of the people that you represent.”

Then there’s the race for Loeffler’s seat.

She became a senator in January, when Gov. Brian Kemp appointed her to replace Sen. Johnny Isakson, who retired for health reasons. While Trump preferred Rep. Doug Collins, who defended him ferociously during his impeachment, Kemp ultimately went with Loeffler in what was possibly the only time the governor defied Trump.

Collins is now challenging Loeffler in a special election for which there were no primaries. Because of that, it’s all against all. The two Republicans are pummeling each other in a competition over who’s the better Trumpist, which strayed into absurdity when Loeffler recently said there are “no” issues in which she disagrees with the President. When asked about her thoughts on the “Access Hollywood” tape, in which Trump infamously bragged about sexually assaulting women, Loeffler simply said she’s “not familiar” with it.

With some 20 people on the ballot for the seat, polls show Democrat Raphael Warnock, a pastor at Martin Luther King’s Ebenezer Baptist Church, is leading the pack, with Loeffler and Collins trailing behind, having split the Republican vote. But it’s unlikely Warnock will win more than 50% of the vote in the crowded contest, which means he is likely to face a runoff against either Loeffler or Collins in January. It’s unclear whether he can persuade a majority of Georgia voters to support him in a one-on-one contest, but if the progressive African American pastor can win, it will be a historic first for Georgia that cements the ongoing political shift.

What happened? Trump happened, but that’s not all.

Georgians have been voting in astounding numbers, and early voting is already approaching the total 2016 turnout. Voters in liberal Atlanta lined up for hours when early voting started and the general sentiment I heard was, “We’ve had more than enough of Trump.” Many Atlantans, likely heeding the warnings from Democratic officials and voting rights activists, have already voted. And while Trump supporters are undoubtedly invigorated as well, rural areas, where he is strongest, have had lower turnout so far.

Trump has certainly energized the opposition. But it’s not all about him, of course. The state has been changing for years and Trump’s victory in 2016 was much narrower than Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney’s in 2012. And despite the state’s reputation as a Republican stalwart, parts of Georgia are very, very blue.

Atlanta, after all, was the epicenter of the civil rights movement; the home of Martin Luther King, Jr. The late civil rights icon John Lewis represented Georgia’s 5th congressional district. Atlanta has a huge, politically-active LGBTQ population, a vibrant African-American community, and a passionately liberal population.

Stacey Abrams, a Democrat who served as the former minority leader in Georgia’s state legislature, came close to winning the 2018 gubernatorial race. But her opponent Brian Kemp, who was also in charge of overseeing the election as secretary of state, ultimately prevailed. Many still think she was robbed, mostly through Republican voter suppression efforts.

Since then, she has worked to combat voter suppression through her organization, Fair Fight Action, which helps register and mobilize voters, while keeping a close eye on the election process, particularly in Georgia.

And for many voters, perceptions of voter suppression are, paradoxically, driving up Black voter turnout, according to Politico. Some Georgians said they were motivated to vote in this election after they were removed from the voter rolls in 2018. Aurelia Gray, an African American voter in suburban Atlanta, told Politico that after waiting in line for four hours to vote during the June primary, she vowed to take action. This Election Day, she’s volunteering as a poll worker.

It didn’t help that Tropical Storm Zeta barreled across the state early Thursday, uprooting trees, smashing cars and mobile homes, knocking out power, killing several people, and disrupting early voting. Sixteen counties had to cancel or delay early voting, with just two days left. But voters are undeterred.

Ossoff and Perdue are neck and neck. And then there’s that very complicated race for Loeffler’s seat.

If Trump loses Georgia, he may end up dragging down the state’s Republican senators, who have stood four-square behind him.

Georgia is not Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania or California. Its 16 electoral votes may not be enough to tip the scales, but it does serve as a useful barometer. Typically a solid red state, it was not supposed to be in contention in 2020. But if Democrats sweep the board in Georgia, it’s as good a sign as any that Trump’s tenure may be over.