The real question of this election

Forty years ago, Ronald Reagan dispatched President Jimmy Carter with a simple question to the American people: “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?“

The question of the 2020 election is a variation on the theme: “Is our country better off now than it was four years ago?”

Good people can disagree about politics, but let’s look at the data.

America is more divided at home and less respected around the world. Our national debt is higher, income inequality larger and more Americans are unemployed than when Donald Trump came into office. We’re even divided on basic questions of science: Trump’s disastrously denial-driven response to the pandemic has caused America to have 20% of the world’s deaths despite having just 4% of the world’s population, with cases spiking to new highs as we head into Election Day. So it’s not a surprise that more than 80% of Americans say they are not satisfied with the way things are going in the USA.

The pessimism is palpable around the world. It’s a disgrace that President Trump is less trusted around the world than dictators like Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and China’s President Xi Jinping, according to Pew research. Perhaps not coincidentally, dissatisfaction with democracy is rising and our allies fear that the US could leave the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in a Trump second term.

This is all a result of President Trump. Sixty percent of Americans say Trump makes us more divided, according to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll — while only 20% of Republicans can summon a straight face to argue that he has united the nation.

The truth is that he never tried to unite the nation — just as he’s never really tried to win the popular vote in his re-election, choosing to focus instead on the electoral college. Usually incumbents try (and succeed) to do both. With his constant assaults on facts and amplification assorted conspiracy theories, Trump was politically weak and divisive well before Covid-19 hit: he is the only president in the history of Gallup polls never to be above 50% approval rating. According to the Washington Post, Trump has made over 22,000 false or misleading claims and counting — averaging 50 lies a day towards the end of the campaign. We know who Donald Trump is, and he will only get completely unrestrained by decency and democratic norms if he is re-elected.

To be sure, Trump has hardcore supporters who have embraced him as a badge of identity. They would back him if, as he said during his 2016 campaign, he shot someone on Fifth Avenue or refused to accept a peaceful transfer of power, as he said during this election season. Belief systems are, after all, impervious to reason.

There are other, so called “shy Trump voters” who rationalize their support through negative partisanship, convincing themselves that Trump is really running against the far-left polices of Bernie Sanders, not the more centrist Joe Biden. These folks are quick to say they are embarrassed by his unhinged tweets, his lack of basic decency, by his constant attacks on facts. They’ll say they don’t agree with him on all issues: maybe they believe that climate change is real or support LGBT rights, or a woman’s right to choose, or immigration or standing up to dictators like Putin. They’ll condemn corruption and incompetence, before deflecting with a healthy dollop of whataboutism.

But they’ll say that ultimately Trump is simply better for their interests. If they make more than $400,000 a year, they’ll probably be worried about getting their taxes raised and believe that Democrats would be worse for the economy (despite the fact that the stock market performs better when a Democrat is president). Before Covid-19 hit, Trump had a solid lead on the economy and he is fond of pointing out that 56% of Americans say they are better off than they were four years ago, according to Gallup. Then again, Gallup also found that 56% of voters say that Trump does not deserve to be re-elected. There would appear to be some overlap.

Here’s the thing: you cannot take Donald Trump a la carte. If you vote for his re-election, you are endorsing his divisive and destructive style of presidential leadership and saying that you want four more years of it. Remember, history shows that character is the essential quality for presidents. And if you’re making your decision solely on dollars and cents, you might be discounting the overall cost-benefit ratio of a Trump second term. It’s worth asking how much of your economic well-being is wrapped up in the strength of our liberal democracy.

Because if the idea of America as a beacon of freedom and a bastion of liberal democracy is degraded, America will become a much more divided and less stable place in a more dangerous world. Second term presidents are not constrained by the need to be re-elected. They are also more likely to establish a model that future candidates will follow. There will be more lawlessness and cronyism, more scandals and abuses of civil liberties. If climate change accelerates due to a fundamental policy of denial and negligence, is it worth asking how that will impact your quality of life? And if Trump’s reelection strengthens the claims of ethnonationalist leaders who want democracy to be dysfunctional because it strengthens their autocratic regimes, what will that do for the trajectory of the 21st century?

These are not small points. They are fundamental. For baby boomers, there’s an added burden: this election will determine their political legacy. If at the end of their governing-age life they double down on Trump, whatever youthful idealism their generation once embodied will close on this coldly ironic coda.

The truth is that we cannot ultimately separate our individual self-interest from the common good. Asking whether you are better off can’t be cut off from the question of whether our country is better off. The two are interconnected. The test of leadership is whether we leave our country better than it was handed to us. The trajectory implications of this election are huge and will be felt for generations. This is a time for choosing. So how will you answer the question? And decades from now, do you honestly believe that you will feel proud of your decision when your children or grandchildren ask you to explain your vote?